NFL mock draft: Hub Arkush Version 1.0

The only sure thing about a mock draft is it will change multiple times between now and the end of April.

What won't change is the strength of this year's crop with six wide receivers, five quarterbacks and five edge rushers in my first crack at the first round.

Every NFL team wants to throw the football and rush the passer, so it's no surprise those three positions make up half of my first mock draft.

The biggest surprise is I only have three offensive linemen - all tackles - going in the first round, in part because more teams are looking for guards and centers.

If I'm right, there will be at least three more tackles with first-round grades waiting for new homes until Day 2.

1. Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson: It feels like Lawrence has been locked into this spot forever. He's the surest thing at QB since Andrew Luck in 2012.

2. N.Y. Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU: It's unclear whether Joe Douglas and Bob Saleh are Sam Darnold fans and this pick is prime for a trade. Wilson is the consensus No. 2 rated QB behind Lawrence on most teams' boards.

3. Miami (via the Texans) - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU: After taking him at No. 5 last year and a pretty decent rookie year, why quit on Tua already? It makes more sense to get him the best wideout in a loaded draft.

4. Atlanta - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech: QBs tempt Atlanta but there's no indication Matt Ryan can't play at a very high level for another few years. Cornerback was a disaster last year, and Farley is the best in this draft.

5. Cincinnati - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon: The Bengals got a taste of what can happen last season when you don't protect the franchise. Franchise left tackles don't come along often and Sewell ticks off the No. 1 item on Joe Burrow's wish list.

6. Philadelphia - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State: The defense needs a difference maker and a leader in the middle. Parsons is on everybody's list as the next NFL star out of "Linebacker U."

7. Detroit - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama: The Lions need defense, but CB Jeff Okudah was a Top 5 pick last year, and there are no more front seven defenders worthy of a Top 10 pick. So Detroit gets Goff a top target.

8. Carolina - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State: Lance is a bit of a gamble here, but he has franchise traits.

9. Denver - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State: Fields is another phenomenal prospect who was right behind Lawrence going into their '20 seasons. Fields could eventually be the best of the bunch, but he may also take the longest to get there.

10. Dallas - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida: Not a screaming need, but there are no defensive tackles or safeties worthy of this pick. Pitts is one of the top prospects in years who would have gone top 5 if there weren't so many QBs.

11. N.Y. Giants - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama: This is a little too high for the pass rushers and guards on the board, but the Giants are mediocre at best at wide receiver. Waddle looks like a ton more than that.

12. San Francisco - Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama: Cornerback haunted the 49ers last season. Richard Sherman will be 33 and a free agent. Surtain has the size and tools to be the next Sherman.

13. L.A. Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern: There is some debate whether Slater's best fit will be left tackle or guard, but the Chargers need one of each. Slater looks like a perennial Pro Bowler at either spot.

14. Minnesota - Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami: There are a number of edge rushers with late first-round grades, and while this is a bit of a reach for Rousseau, he probably has the highest ceiling of any in this draft.

15. New England - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida: Toney's big-play ability is off the charts. This is way too high for QB No. 5, and a stud wideout is a need.

16. Arizona - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington: The Cardinals have to upgrade their defensive front. This may be a reach, but with the top four receivers off the board it makes perfect sense.

17. Las Vegas - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan: The Raiders need playmakers on defense at every level and a number of scouts think Paye can be the most explosive pass rusher in this draft.

18. Miami - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson: So they got Tua the best receiver prospect in this draft, so why not get him the top running back.

19. Washington - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: This is pretty rich for Jones, but he's better than anyone Washington has under center.

20. Bears - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, USC: Vera-Tucker had outstanding seasons at tackle and guard and projects here as the Bears' opening-day starter at left tackle and an instant upgrade.

21. Indianapolis - Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami: Indy's defense is outstanding, but it is a big-time pass rusher away from being special. Phillips fills the bill.

22. Tennessee - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina: Horn is the next best corner prospect this year after Farley and Surtain. Like them, he has excellent size and ball skills.

23. N.Y. Jets (via the Seahawks) - Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn State: There are a lot of teams looking for edge rushers and a few will get over-drafted this year. Oweh is very disruptive, but he'll need to learn how to finish.

24. Pittsburgh - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: The Steelers' ground game struggles lasted all season.

25. Jacksonville (via the Rams) - Joe Tryon, Edge, Washington: Tryon isn't so much an edge bender as much as a complete 4-3 defensive end who might grow into a five-technique with another 15 or 20 pounds.

26. Cleveland - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU: Moehrig is the top safety prospect in a less than stellar group. He's not quite as big as you'd like, but always around the ball.

27. Baltimore - Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville: Atwell is an explosion waiting to happen. He's smaller than you like, but the Ravens need a lot of help at receiver, and if they want size they can also add free agent JuJu Smith-Schuster.

28. New Orleans - Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU: The Saints have been looking for a complement to Michael Thomas for several years.

29. Green Bay - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri: Bolton is an excellent value and a perfect fit for what ails the Packers' defense. He is already a dynamic run stuffer who will need to grow in coverage.

30. Buffalo - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa: It isn't a great draft for interior defensive linemen, but Nixon is exactly what the Bills are looking for at 6-3, 300 pounds.

31. Kansas City - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame: This kid is a Top 20 prospect who falls this far because at 6-1, 215 it's not clear where he'll fit.

32. Tampa Bay - Zaven Collins, OLB, Tulsa: Collins is a unique prospect, a 6-4, 260-pounder who's better in coverage than he is vs. the run but no slouch there either.

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