Bush succeeded in Iraq, but not so in Iran, North Korea
Just four months after 9/11, George Bush identified Iran, Iraq and North Korea as the "axis of evil" and declared that defanging these rogue regimes was America's most urgent national security task. Bush will be judged on whether he succeeded.
Six years later and with time running out on this administration, the Bush legacy is clear: one for three. Contrary to public opinion, Bush will have succeeded on Iraq, failed on Iran and fought North Korea to a draw.
Iran. Bush has thrown in the towel on Iran's nuclear program because the intelligence bureaucracy, in a spectacularly successful coup, seized control of the policy with a National Intelligence Estimate that very misleadingly trumpeted the claim that Iran had halted its nuclear program. In fact, Iran only halted the least important component of its nuclear program, namely weaponization. The hard part is the production of the nuclear fuel. Iran continues enriching uranium in open defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions. Once you have the necessary fuel, you can make the bomb in only a few months. Thus to even speak of the Iranian program as having been stopped while enrichment continues is absurd.
The administration had to immediately release and accept the NIE's sensational conclusions because the report would have been leaked and the administration then accused of covering up good news to justify going to war, the assumption being that George Bush and Dick Cheney have a Patton-like lust for the smell of battle. The administration understands that the NIE's distorted message that Iran has given up pursuing nukes has not only taken any military option off the table but jeopardized further sanctions against Iran. Making the best of the lost cause, Bush will go through the motions, leaving the Iranian bomb to his successor.
North Korea. We did get Kim Jong Il to disable his plutonium-producing program. The next step is for Pyongyang to disclose all nuclear activities. Knowing we have no credible threats against North Korea, we now come bearing carrots. President Bush writes a personal letter to Kim Jong Il, in essence entreating him to come clean on his nuclear program so we can proceed to full normalization.
Disabling the plutonium reactor is an achievement. There is, however, no hope of North Korea giving up its existing nuclear weapons stockpile, and little assurance that we will find, let alone disable, any clandestine programs. But lacking sticks, we take what we can.
Iraq is a different story. Whatever our subsequent difficulties, our initial success definitively rid the world of Saddam Hussein and his monstrous sons. The taking down of Saddam led directly to Libya's full nuclear disarmament and, undoubtedly, to Iran's 2003 suspension of weaponization. As for Iraq itself, after three years of disorientation, the U.S. has found a winning counterinsurgency strategy.
It took Bush three years to find his general (as it did Lincoln) and turn a losing war into a winnable one. Baghdad and Washington are discussing a long-term basing agreement that could give the United States permanent military presence in the region and a close relationship with the most important country in the Middle East heartland -- a major strategic achievement. Nonetheless, the pressure on this administration and the next to get out prematurely will remain.
On North Korea and Iran, the Bush administration heads to the finish line doing what Sen. George Aiken once suggested for Vietnam: Declare victory and go home. With no good options available, those decisions are understandable. But if Bush or his successor does an Aiken on Iraq, where success is a real option, history will judge him severely.
© 2007, Washington Post Writers Group