Does Clinton have a shot in Obama's state?

In the Northwest suburbs, a handful of Hillary Clinton supporters are planting the seeds for a campaign to win voters in what is largely considered Barack Obama country.

Volunteers are recruiting foot soldiers from township to township to knock on doors and man phone lines. Homes and garages have been turned into weekend campaign headquarters. Signs are being stored in an office near Round Lake.

"We are already out there," boasted Patrick Ouimet, a former McHenry County Democratic Party chairman who is heading up the effort.

But an hour's drive outside the suburbs, Clinton's LaSalle County insurgent operation appears to be sleeping.

"Hopefully we'll start getting some signs and material soon," said Rocky Raikes, chairman of the county's Democratic Party and organizer of Clinton's efforts in the 11th Congressional District.

As Illinois' Feb. 5 primary approaches, the disparity illustrates a big question for the Clinton campaign: Should she pour resources into Obama's home state or focus more on any of the other 21 states that will nominate presidential candidates the same day?

"It is called a campaign because it is a war. And the reason it is a war is because you have to put your assets where they will do the most good," said Paul Green, director of the Institute for Politics at Roosevelt University in Chicago and Schaumburg.

Clinton, Green said, must weigh the millions it would cost to do battle in Illinois against the possibility of tepid results, given Obama's roots here.

Yet others argue Illinois is wide open for Clinton.

On the one hand, most of the Democratic establishment is solidly behind Obama, including the state's party chairman, the governor and Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. Plus, Obama handily won the heavily contested 2004 U.S. Senate Democratic primary, sweeping the suburbs with as much as 65 percent of the vote in some areas.

But it might not take much effort for Clinton to turn an Illinois loss into a win, observers say.

Illinois has 185 Democratic delegates -- what really matters in a close primary contest. To secure the party's nomination, a Democratic candidate needs to win 2,025 delegates across the nation.

Illinois selects most of its delegates according to congressional districts and then divides them among the candidates based on the proportion of votes they win in each district.

So, if Clinton could muster 40 percent of the vote in Illinois, she could walk away with roughly 40 percent of the delegates and marginalize Obama's take.

In fact, this is Clinton's broad Illinois campaign plan.

"Any way you cut it, Hillary Clinton is going to get a very large chunk of delegates in Illinois," said J.B. Pritzker, co-director of Clinton's national campaign. "It is our job to make sure she gets as many as she can."

To win a sizable vote in each congressional district, supporters are counting on female voters and Clinton's experience -- the same factors that are keeping her national campaign humming.

Yet, they are also playing up Clinton's hometown roots. She was born and raised in Park Ridge and still has childhood pals in the area.

"It is not just the place she was born. This is the place she still calls home," said Arlington Heights resident Betsy Ebeling, a high school friend of Clinton's who now campaigns for her. "I trust the American voter will learn the facts and not just go with whomever is their senator."

Still, it remains unclear just how much money or time Clinton will put into taking delegates out of Obama's state. Even Pritzker wouldn't give a clear answer.

The bottom line remains that it is still probably too early for either candidate to say what kind of campaign Illinois voters will see.

"A lot of it has to do with where they stand when we go into Super Tuesday," Green said of Feb. 5.

The candidates don't have enough resources to run TV ads and blanket lawns with signs in every state.

So, it may make sense for her to spend resources to limit Obama's delegate take in Illinois, or she may want to spend more resources shoring up delegates in bigger states like New York or California, Green reasons.

Regardless, Clinton should win a noticeable number of Illinois delegates.

"Clinton is going to get some delegates for her trouble," said John Jackson, a visiting political professor at the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. "Bill and Hillary have a lot of supporters here, and I don't think she will be shut out."

Obama isn't taking Illinois for granted, campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt said.

And he should certainly know not to, especially considering that he is also staging his own insurgent campaign in New York, where Clinton is a U.S. senator.

Obama has 25,000 local volunteers, along with campaign offices in Chicago, Springfield and just outside East St. Louis. Clinton has yet to open an official Illinois campaign office.

"Our goal is to win by the biggest margin possible," LaBolt said.