Think you're a gambling whiz? It's probably all luck

Think you beat the game? Here's another name for it

I'm going to utter a timeless phrase that has influenced anybody who's ever wagered 5 cents on anything. The phrase is; "That's why they call it gambling."

No matter what you gamble on; the lotto, horses, slots, what-have-you, there's going to be an element of luck involved in your outcome. Maybe you're flipping a coin with a friend at the office for a cup of coffee, assuming it'll all balance out by the end of the month -- but guess what? It probably won't!

Why not? It's because of Ol' Man Variance. Gamblers call it just plain luck. Mathematicians however, have studied this kind of luck and elevated it to a science, calling it "variance." They've determined if you flip that coin for coffee 30 days in a row, there's only a 15 percent chance that you and your friend will each buy 15 times. Eighty-five percent of the time, somebody's going to get stuck buying more coffee than the other guy.

So what's my point? I want to impress upon you that when it comes to casino gambling, unless you've done the same thing for a very long time, you can't trust your results. The proof is not in the puddin' until you have several hundred hours under your belt. Here's what I mean.

I ran into a baccarat player who's been beating the game for about a year (he says around 50 hours of play). Because of that, he's convinced he's got a winning strategy. But the fact is, for every five baccarat players who spend 50 hours just flat betting on the Banker's hand, one of them will be a net winner due to Ol' Man Variance! Single that lone winner out and try to make him understand he was just lucky? No chance! He's positive he's got the game whupped, even though the house has a fixed 1.1 percent edge on him.

This kind of thing happens in other casino games too, even though most of them are unbeatable in the long run. If there was no variance, nobody would ever win and there'd be no game.

I'm sure the baccarat player will keep pounding away at the tables until he's played long enough that Ol' Man Variance can't help him any more. After 300 hours of play, his chances of still being ahead will be down to one in 50 rather than one in five. And in time, he'll have no chance at all.

So if you're a slot player or a roulette player or a craps shooter and you've been beating the game over a short-to-medium term, you've got Ol' Man Variance to thank for it. These games are overwhelmingly protected by the house odds. Please don't bring out the serious money thinking you've got the game figured out. Ol' Man Variance grows very weary of helping out gamblers who consistently hold the shorter end of the gambling stick.

These things work out the other way around too. Even if you've learned all the skills to legitimately beat blackjack (which is entirely possible), you still have around a 40 percent chance to get spanked through your first 50 hours. Not until you've logged several hundred hours at the tables will you be highly likely to be out in front.

So if you don't plan on playing blackjack for years to come, it's probably not worth learning a winning system for it. But if you're going to be a player anyway, then consider where you're likely to be, say, 300 hours down the road -- here Ol' Man Variance will have gotten mostly out of your affairs.

If you've learned to play a bona fide winning system, it's 75 percent you'll be ahead of the game by then. If you simply play correct basic strategy, your chances are 25 percent. And if you're just a regular Joe, making a typical number of mistakes with your hands, your chance to be ahead is a slim 2 percent. You make the call.