Three 'M's' - media, money, momentum, helping Obama

Green is Director-Institute for Politics at Roosevelt University Chicago and Schaumburg

Presidential nomination politics rests on the three "M's" -- money, media and momentum. On each of the "M's" Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is outpacing New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

This week's Wisconsin primary results reinforce Obama's three-"M" mastery. Clinton's post super-Tuesday (Feb. 5) meltdown leaves her with one last ditch desperate shot in the March 4 Texas and Ohio primaries. Bluntly speaking, Clinton must win both states to have any chance at gaining her party's presidential nomination.

In my previous column following the Super Tuesday split decision between Obama and Clinton, I wrote of the likelihood that the Democratic presidential contest could go to their party's late August national convention in Denver. I have now changed my mind. Why? I seriously doubt the so-called super delegates will decide this battle at the convention -- especially if Obama can win either Ohio or Texas. Imagine the political pressure on super delegates this summer who want to support Clinton from states Obama carried in the spring. They would be going against their constituents' wishes (most of the "supers" are elected officeholders or party officials) and they would be jeopardizing their own re-election in future campaigns. Martyrdom has never been a goal of most American politicians -- and 2008 in Denver will be no exception.

Going back to the three "M's" -- the real question that needs to be answered is how did Obama do it.

• Money. Clinton has raised a ton of cash -- Obama has raised a ton and a half. The dollar race between them has been as ferocious as the delegate contest , but even as early as last autumn the Obama camp demonstrated the organizational ability to match Clinton's prodigious fundraising prowess. Obama's early 2008 primary and caucus wins -- especially Iowa -- opened a floodgate of new bucks that swamped the Clinton campaign.

• Media. The Clinton stalwarts now claim the press has been giving Obama a free ride. What did they expect? Obama and his Chicago-based campaign brain trust has turned Clinton, the first serious female candidate for president, into of all things "one of the good old boys". They have figuratively placed a derby hat on her head, a cigar in her mouth and a pinky ring on her finger as they label her the spokesperson for politics of the past.

One wonders if Obama's next book will be titled, "What I Owe Charles Dickens" since his campaign has turned the nomination end game between him and Clinton into a modern version of the "Christmas Carol". Clinton is Christmas (politics) past and Obama, Christmas (politics) future.

• Momentum -- Capitalizing on the first two "M's" Obama has been able to string together an amazing post-Feb. 5 winning streak -- especially in the so-called red (Republican) states. He has generated new enthusiasm among red-state Democrats who have suffered a long streak of election losses. Obama's unique background and campaign style has given them a chance to yell, cheer and dream that these Plains and Southern states may actually be competitive in 2008 -- with Obama heading the Democratic ticket.

In sum, Obama's politics of youth and hope is trumping Clinton's themes of experience and accomplishment. Unless Clinton can win Ohio and Texas, I do not see how she and her campaign can withstand the political pressure placed on her super delegates. The call for party unity will be intense.

Said more simply -- if Obama runs the table on March 4, the Democratic presidential contest is over!