Suburban races could decide if Dems keep control in Springfield

SPRINGFIELD - A dozen suburban state Senate and House races could decide the balance of partisan power at the state Capitol as both parties now ramp up ads and grass-roots efforts to sway voters.

For now, Democrats control all of state government. And with Chicagoan Barack Obama atop the ticket, many political observers predict massive Democratic turnout across the state, voters they expect to benefit other Democrats down the ballot.

Democrats currently have 37 of the 59 state Senate seats, giving them a "super majority" that allows them to set their own agenda without need of Republican votes, if all Democratic members can agree. In the 118-member House, Democrats have a 67-51 advantage. Democrats also control all statewide offices and the Illinois Supreme Court.

But on the flip side, Democrats' reign in Springfield has been increasingly marred by personality conflicts and gridlock, a theme Republicans are pushing in their campaigns.

So the question heading into Election Day becomes whether Obama's popularity here will trump political animosity and criticism over the way Democrats have run the state.

Obviously Republicans are counting on voters buying into the GOP message in the local races, particularly in suburban Cook County contests, where Democrats are similarly being tied to board President Todd Stroger's unpopular sales tax increase.

"This is a question about whether the voters want to endorse the kind of leadership and behavior we've seen in Springfield the last six years," said Steve Rauschenberger, a former Elgin Republican state lawmaker now president of the United Republican Fund of Illinois.

That organization launched an "Eight in '08" campaign stressing the need to keep or capture eight legislative seats across the state that it considers crucial to the party's future.

But political observers say even with the apparent voter dissatisfaction, it's going to be another tough year for Illinois Republicans.

Chris Mooney, a political scientist at the University of Illinois' Springfield campus, argues people tend not to connect their specific local lawmaker with problems at the Capitol. And with the governor and other statewide constitutional offices not on the ballot until 2010, Mooney predicts, "Obamamania will rule."

Not surprisingly, Democratic officials have similar thoughts.

"I think the Obama candidacy is encouraging, because it will bring forward a lot of new voters. Some of them may choose to vote for Republicans, but I don't think many of them will," said Steve Brown, spokesman for Illinois House Speaker and Democratic Party Chairman Michael Madigan.

Brown, however, contends the much ballyhooed public dissatisfaction with Springfield politics is not real and will have no bearing on the statehouse contests.

"Your premise is faulty because one person's gridlock is another person's utilization of a common-sense approach to government problem-solving," Brown explained.

The alternative, he said, would have been approval of the governor's massive business taxes, gambling expansion and other questionable proposals.

"I hate to break anyone's heart about that," said Brown. "It's really not dysfunction. It's really not gridlock, or those other trivializations of the situation."

Elsewhere, political observers say Republican gains will be tough simply because there are so few races in which there is any real chance at flipping local politics. Only 40 of the 59 Senate seats are on the ballot this election, and in 20 of those, there is no opponent.

In the House, all 118 seats are on the ballot, but in half, there is no opposition.

"The problem (for Republicans) on the Senate side is there are so few opportunities to gain ground," said Mike Lawrence, former press secretary for Republican Gov. Jim Edgar and now head of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. "On the House side, the Republicans are largely in a defensive posture in trying to hold seats."

Key legislative races

Political observers say there are roughly a dozen suburban statehouse contests that could be close. Here's a look at some most often mentioned.

State House

43rd House

• Keith Farnham, Elgin Democrat

• Ruth Munson, Elgin Republican

• Dane Willman, Carpentersville Green

Note: Munson is a GOP incumbent in an area where Democrats have made gains.

44th House

• Fred Crespo, Hoffman Estates Democrat

• Margaret "Peggy" Brothman, Hoffman Estates Republican

Note: Crespo defeated a Republican incumbent in a close race two years ago.

53rd House

• Carol Javens, Wheeling Democrat

• Sidney Mathias, Buffalo Grove Republican

• Rob Sherman, Buffalo Grove Green

Note: Mathias is the GOP incumbent in a region where Democrats have posted gains.

56th House

• Paul Froehlich, Schaumburg Democrat

• Anita Forte-Scott, Schaumburg Republican

Note: Froehlich, the incumbent, faces his first re-election as a Democrat after switching parties, a move that stoked Republicans' ire.

59th House

• Kathleen Ryg, Vernon Hills Democrat

• Dan Sugrue, Green Oaks Republican

Note: Ryg is the Democratic incumbent in an area where Republicans still have strength.

65th House

• Aurora Austriaco, Park Ridge Democrat

• Rosemary Mulligan, Des Plaines Republican

Note: Mulligan is the Republican incumbent in an area where Democrats have posted gains.

66th House

• Mark Walker, Arlington Heights Democrat

• Christine Prochno, Elk Grove Village Republican

Note: Rare open seat previously held by Republican state Rep. Carolyn Krause, who's not seeking re-election.

96th House

• Dianne McGuire, Naperville Democrat

• Darlene Senger, Naperville Republican

• Jennifer Witt, Naperville Green

Note: Rare open seat previously held by Republican state Rep. Joe Dunn, who's not seeking re-election.

State Senate

26th Senate

• Bill Gentes, Round Lake Democrat

• Dan Duffy, Lake Barrington Republican

Note: Rare open seat. Incumbent Republican Bill Peterson is not seeking re-election.

27th Senate

• Peter Gutzmer, Hoffman Estates Democrat

• Matt Murphy, Palatine Republican

Note: Murphy is the incumbent in an area where Democrats have posted gains.

33rd Senate

• Daniel Kotowski, Park Ridge Democrat

• Michael Sweeney, Arlington Heights Republican

Note: Kotowski's win two years ago helped pad Democrats' Senate majority. Before then the district had been Republican.

42nd Senate

• Linda Holmes, Aurora Democrat

• Terri Ann Wintermute, Bolingbrook Republican

Note: Holmes' win two years ago added to Democrats' majority. District previously held by a Republican.