Cubs at break: What you see is what you got
There's a sports cliché that fits the first-half Cubs like a warm fuzzy blanket.
"They are what their record says they are."
Whether it's players not hitting their potential or needing more time to develop, the Cubs just don't have enough good players right now to be a solid contender.
Maybe that will change after the All-Star break, because like we said, there are some guys who could be doing better. But one positive note about the Cubs in general is, thanks to 2016, they now know what a championship team should look like.
Looking at the current position players, who would fit into a championship lineup? Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner for sure.
Christopher Morel should probably be in there somewhere, at third base or a super-utility player. If the Cubs continue a catcher platoon, Miguel Amaya seems capable of filling one of the spots.
Beyond that, the future doesn't necessarily look great. The Cubs need more offense from corner outfielders Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. Top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong still seems to be the long-term center fielder.
One wild card is Cody Bellinger.
Since the first game in London, he's hit .436 with just 5 strikeouts in 60 plate appearances. His bat is moving at lightning speed and making constant contact.
Should Bellinger be in consideration as the Cubs' long-term first baseman, assuming Crow-Armstrong moves into center field next year? Well, that's one of the tough calls president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer needs to make before the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
Speaking of first base, it's probably safe to say Matt Mervis will be back with the Cubs soon to take a second look at major league pitching. To be determined is how much longer the Jared Young tryout will continue. Maybe he'll get hot to start the second half and stick around, but the Cubs definitely need another look at Mervis, who could add the power potential this lineup sorely lacks right now.
Third base is anyone's guess. Nick Madrigal was on a nice roll before suffering a hamstring injury last week. If healthy, he'll probably be back at third when play resumes Friday against Boston, but the Cubs may need more slug from that spot. Unless Patrick Wisdom can find his April form, he's not likely to be part of the future plan.
Pitching has been uneven. After a nice start, Cubs starters have a 5.14 ERA so far in July. On the season, the Cubs rank 10th in starter ERA.
Besides Justin Steele, the Cubs' other four starters are all in their 30s. So it would be no surprise to see a starting pitcher moved by the trade deadline, especially since they already sent Hayden Wesneski down to Iowa to get stretched out. Trades don't always pan out, but the Cubs are already making plans to fill a rotation vacancy.
The Cubs bullpen posted a 2.65 ERA in June. Manager David Ross settled on a 'A' lineup of Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr. and Adbert Alzolay, while Michael Fulmer has turned things around after a miserable start. Those guys can falter when they throw too often, so another reliable arm would help. That should have been free-agent addition Brad Boxberger, but there's no timeline yet for him to return from an injury.
Considering the Reds have gone 29-12 since May 26, the day they beat the Cubs 9-0, there's no reason to feel great about this team's playoff chances. Nevertheless, here are some midseason awards:
MVP: All-star Justin Steele has been amazing so far, giving the Cubs their first homegrown ace since probably Carlos Zambrano. Both Steele and Marcus Stroman would likely finish top five in Cy Young voting if it were held today.
Most pleasant surprise: Adbert Alzolay making a solid run at becoming the closer. There's more to prove, but a 2.29 ERA is a good start.
Biggest problem: Probably that Nico Hoerner leads the team in RBI with 45. That's great for him, but also a sign Ian Happ (39 RBI) and Seiya Suzuki (28) aren't producing runs like corner outfielders should. Happ has been very good with defense and walks, where he ranks second in MLB behind Juan Soto.
Most likely to be traded: That's probably a tossup between Stroman, Kyle Hendricks and Drew Smyly. Hendricks might bring the most in return. Stroman is headed to free-agency, but the Cubs did get a second-round pick for letting Willson Contreras walk away last year. As mentioned above, management will likely be thinking hard about re-signing Bellinger.
Best trend: Christopher Morel showing star potential in his second season in the majors. Counting players with at least 180 at-bats, Morel would rank ninth in the NL in OPS.
Second-half comeback: For the Cubs' sake, it needs to be Suzuki, with both better health and more consistent production.
Found a home: Palatine native Mike Tauchman is making a strong case for sticking with the Cubs. A reliable left-handed bat, he can be a handcuff for PCA in center and serve as the utility outfielder.
Next prospect promoted: Pitcher Ben Brown has plateaued a bit in Iowa, with a 5.76 season ERA. With Daniel Palencia hitting 100 mph in his debut, maybe the Cubs should try the hardest-throwing left-hander in their system. Six-foot-8 Luke Little has 66 strikeouts in 44 innings at Tennessee.
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