Post Snoozer Tuesday reflections on what ‘pivotal’ means in politics
Pundits did not call the 15 primary elections this past week “Snoozer” Tuesday for nothing,
Oh, the broadcast media did their best to call the night “pivotal” and, of course, it was for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who exited the race after winning just a single state — Vermont — on Tuesday. The GOP’s winner-take-all rules meant she would not win delegates proportionate to her share of the vote.
But all the breathless coverage did not change the fact that the Biden-Trump rematch that the vast majority of Americans say they do not want is going to happen — barring an unforeseen event — because that is the way the American people voted.
If the media is waiting for a “pivotal” moment, they might consider an extended cease-fire in Gaza; the passage of the Ukraine aid package (and the resulting political repercussions in the House); the first rate cuts by the Fed or another surge in inflation; or — barring the passage of the border security/immigration bill passed in the Senate — a series of executive orders by President Biden that most certainly would be immediately challenged in the courts by immigrant rights organizations.
However, we did catch a glimpse of the American electorate in the exit poll data that came out of three states — Virginia, North Carolina, and California. The data provide warnings for both candidates.
For President Biden, the “uncommitted” protest votes over the war in Gaza continue to pile up, but don’t threaten his nomination. The question hangs, what will those voters do in November? What if the fighting has stopped by then and there is movement toward some sort of peace process? Would the president get any credit?
Of course, the president will continue to battle the question of his age and his physical and mental fitness and Donald Trump will pound away at that relentlessly, but, interestingly, 22% of Republican voters in North Carolina told exit poll interviewers that they don’t think Trump has the physical or mental capacity to be President.
Still, the polling data from these three states illustrate that today’s Republican Party is very much Trump’s party. Yes, a strong majority of those GOP voters say they are not part of the MAGA movement, but 46% of Virginia Republicans, 60% of North Carolina Republicans, and 57% of California Republicans say that Joe Biden did not win the 2020 election and is not the legitimate president.
One kind of wonders if they all really believe that in their heart of hearts or just feel they have to say that to pollsters to maintain their tribal identity in the party of Trump.
Two other numbers stand out. Significant numbers of Republican voters say they will not vote for Donald Trump if he is convicted of a crime. Apparently, the convictions for sexual assault, defamation, and business fraud don’t count.
Does one have to test Trump’s hypothesis that he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose any votes? Any volunteers?
The second number that stood out was a question put to North Carolina Republican voters. When did you decide who to vote for between Trump and Haley? Three percent said: “that day.” Another 15% said: “In the past week.” Think about that and then think about all the hyperventilation over current polls.
Sure, the numbers suggest that more than 50% of Americans know today who they will vote for in November, but vast swaths of American voters have not yet engaged in the process and probably won’t until after Labor Day.
The November election is most certainly “pivotal” given the vastly different visions of the two candidates. As such, the American voters can’t engage soon enough.
• Keith Peterson, of Lake Barrington, served 29 years as a press and cultural officer for the United States Information Agency and Department of State. He was chief editorial writer of the Daily Herald 1984-86.