These four sleepers could find their way to the women’s Final Four

In a women’s college basketball season during which many of the top teams in the rankings changed position countless times, it’s difficult to pick who will make it to this year’s Final Four. While most of the obvious choices to reach Cleveland will come from the top two seed lines in the bracket, Connecticut and LSU are still among the title favorites as No. 3 seeds. Here’s a look at a few of the other teams seeded No. 3 or lower who look equipped to make an unexpected Final Four run.

Oregon State

In the Albany 1 Region, any team other than undefeated top seed South Carolina has to be considered a sleeper pick to reach the Final Four. The Beavers, the No. 3 seed in the region, may have the best chance to go toe-to-toe with the Gamecocks but would still be heavy underdogs in a potential Elite Eight matchup.

So what’s working in their favor? All but four Final Four teams dating to the 2010 tournament have ranked among the top 25 in Her Hoop Stats offensive and defensive rating, pace-adjusted measures that account for opponent quality. Oregon State is one of 15 teams this season to meet those criteria. The Beavers are particularly solid on the defensive end, where they have held opponents to just 0.86 points per scoring attempt, the fourth-best mark nationally.

Anchored by 6-foot-4 sophomore Raegan Beers, Scott Rueck’s squad has the size to match up with the Gamecocks should they meet in the region final. Beers has dominated the lane this season, averaging 17.7 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. The Beavers are also battle-tested, having played in a conference that placed six teams on the top five seed lines in this year’s NCAA tournament.

Colorado

Pac-12 teams are uniquely positioned for success in March. The conference plays on a Friday and Sunday game schedule in the regular season, simulating the turnaround required during the NCAA tournament. This season, many of those weekends in the Pac-12 featured tournament-level competition.

The No. 5 seed Buffaloes won’t have an easy path if they are going to make a deep run. The Albany 2 Region is largely regarded as the toughest, including Caitlin Clark and Iowa as the top seed, a UCLA team with all the pieces to win a title as the No. 2 seed, and reigning champion LSU as the No. 3 seed. Those aren’t unfamiliar opponents for Colorado, which met the Hawkeyes in last year’s Sweet 16 and toppled the Tigers on opening night this season. The Buffaloes also played a home-and-home with the Bruins in Pac-12 play, losing both meetings by single digits.

Like Oregon State, Colorado ranks in the top 25 in both Her Hoop Stats offensive and defensive rating. The Buffaloes also have experience. Four of the five starters from last year’s tournament team remain, including fifth-year players Jaylyn Sherrod and Quay Miller. The fifth starter is Maddie Nolan, a transfer from Michigan who played in nine NCAA tournament games over the past three seasons.

Gonzaga

Despite being a No. 4 seed in the Portland 4 Region, Gonzaga has a 16.3% chance of making the trip to Cleveland, based on the Her Hoop Stats prediction model. That comes on the heels of an impressive season that included a convincing win over Stanford and a perfect record in West Coast Conference play (before a loss to Portland in the conference tournament final).

The Bulldogs just miss the mark on ranking in the top 25 in both Her Hoop Stats offensive and defensive rating (their defensive rating is 27th). However, like Gonzaga, the two most recent exceptions to those criteria to reach the Final Four — Iowa last season and Arizona in 2021 — were elite on one end of the floor. Clark led the Hawkeyes to Dallas last year behind the best offensive rating in the country. Arizona earned a stunning trip to the national final behind its top-five defense. This year’s Gonzaga squad boasts a top offense.

Gonzaga, which ranks fourth nationally in points per play, has a balanced offensive attack and shares the ball well. All five starters average double figures in points. Yvonne Ejim, a finalist for the Katrina McClain Award given annually to the nation’s best power forward, leads the team with 19.8 points per game. Gonzaga is also tied for third nationally in assists per game, with twins Kaylynne and Kayleigh Truong combining to average more assists (10.4) than 35 Division I teams this season.

North Carolina State

After losing back-to-back games for the first time this season in late February, N.C. State seemed to fall off the radar in the discussion of the top teams. The Wolfpack responded to the setback by winning four of their past five, with their lone loss coming to Notre Dame in the ACC championship game by just four points.

The No. 3 seed Wolfpack will host the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament in Raleigh and head to the Portland 4 Region should they advance past the first weekend. Defense often travels, and N.C. State would take a top-10 defensive ranking to the West Coast. That’s been a consistent recipe for success for Coach Wes Moore’s squad, which has ranked among the top 5% of teams in Her Hoop Stats defensive rating in each of the past seven seasons.

The Wolfpack excels at all of the things that become critical during March Madness. It defends without fouling, posting the eighth-best field goal percentage defense nationally while sending its opponents to the line on just 10 percent of their field goal attempts (the third-lowest rate in the country). It also limits opponents’ second-chance opportunities, ranking second in Division I with 31.9 defensive boards per game. Its dominance on the glass represents a collective commitment to boxing out, as four starters average over six rebounds per game. Coupled with multiple guards capable of having big scoring nights, N.C. State has the pieces for a deep run.