Analysis: If Ohio State wins a national title, it might have to thank Michigan
Oregon, the previously undefeated No. 1 team in the nation, never stood a chance in the Rose Bowl. It’s Michigan’s fault.
The beatdown was certain and instantaneous. By the time the Ducks ran their 20th play of the game, on their fourth possession, Ohio State led by 17 points and scored another touchdown less than a minute later. By the time Oregon ran its second play across midfield, they were down by 34.
Ohio State’s 41-21 win in a College Football Playoff quarterfinal on New Year’s Day was an effortless extension of its 42-17 opening-round demolition of Tennessee on Dec. 22. The Buckeyes are both the hottest and best team still alive in the inaugural 12-team national championship tournament, a fact that is inseparable from an increasingly inexplicable loss to their hated rival to end the regular season.
Prognostication is a fool’s errand, but the Buckeyes seem like the most complete team entering next week’s semifinals. An Ohio State roster laden with NFL talent is playing the best football of its season. If the Buckeyes continue apace against Texas at the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 10 and then in the national championship game Jan. 20, their 13-10 loss at home to archrival Michigan on Nov. 30 will become a rare moment in the history of college football — an end-of-season rivalry loss that galvanized a program into a better, championship-winning form of itself in the postseason.
After every lightning-fast offensive drive, after every big play by freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith in the passing game, Ohio State fans wrestle with the question, “Why couldn’t this happen against Michigan?” But a far more interesting — if potentially painful — reality exists: “Could Ohio State look this good without losing to Michigan?”
Just a month ago, Ryan Day was the most unpopular 66-10 coach in history, specifically because four of those 10 career losses came as consecutive defeats at the hands of Michigan. Even if impartial observers tossed the first three of those aside, this season’s grossly mismanaged home loss to a rebuilding Wolverines program seemed inexcusable.
This is where things get tricky: With the embarrassment of talent on this Buckeyes roster, Ohio State’s 10-point effort against Michigan still sets a standard for horrible coaching, but it also might be the only thing that could draw out this level of play. At no point in the regular season did Ohio State’s offense and defense sync up so perfectly to dismantle teams as talented as their playoff opponents.
Just ask Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, who told reporters before the Rose Bowl that playing angry after Michigan was the difference in the Buckeyes’ execution. “I think that’s really what the difference was that anger … that chip on our shoulder that we played with,” Howard said.
How maddening that must be for the millions of Buckeyes fans conditioned to measure self-worth by Michigan wins before anything else, save a national championship (we think). Any of Ohio State’s 11 touchdown drives over the two playoff games would have been enough to beat Michigan.
Smith, the freshman sensation so physically dominant and talented he is earning legitimate comparisons to Julio Jones, boasts 13 receptions and four touchdowns over those two games. Against Michigan, Smith was targeted twice in the second half in offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s plan.
The history of this sport is chock full of season-ending rivalry upsets. Still, there is little precedent for an end-of-season, historic rivalry game recalibrating the losing program to a championship caliber. Maybe an argument could be made for 1996, when No. 1 Florida lost to No. 2 Florida State to end the regular season. After winning the SEC championship the following week, the Gators earned a rematch with the Seminoles in the Sugar Bowl, winning the one that counted the most for a national title. But Florida’s quality of play didn’t remarkably improve after the Florida State loss; the Gators just needed a second chance to beat an elite archrival. In a similar case in 2017, Alabama lost to Auburn in the Iron Bowl before going on to win the national title. But that Crimson Tide team was rolling both before and after its one-week blip against the Tigers.
Local, end-of-season college football rivalries exist more as an existential test than a schematic one. Weird results are considered a function of the heightened emotional investment that we tell ourselves separates college football from pro sports. The unpredictability of highly local, overly emotional narrative stakes outside the game bleed into it by design. These are supposed to be two teams familiar enough with each other to breed a contempt larger than a box score.
But the playoff era diminishes the negative impact of any single loss, and that’s a concession most of us were glad to make in exchange for a properly sized bracket.
Accordingly, there’s no romance in a story about a power program “learning to get better” from a rivalry loss in the same season, but that’s exactly what Ohio State is doing now. In any other decade, Ohio State would have begrudgingly defined its season by that inexplicable loss to Michigan, shuffled off to a bowl game and moved on to next season.
Instead, something almost unprecedented is happening: A team unexpectedly lost to its hated rival and put it to use in the same season. If Ohio State wins two more games, it’s unclear which side of college football’s biggest rivalry will take more credit for it.