Helped by a contract comp, Cubs re-signing Tucker seems realistic
These are interesting economic times, not only for baseball, but the entire country.
On Monday, after watching their 401Ks plummet in the stock market decline, fans were invited to drive through the gauntlet of Chicago speeding cameras to spend $13 per beer at Wrigley Field, and watch the fourth-coldest game in Cubs history.
The first-pitch temperature was 34 degrees, the last pitch more like 30, and the Cubs cruised to a 7-0 victory over the Texas Rangers. Justin Steele tossed 7 scoreless innings, with 8 strikeouts and 3 hits allowed.
In related news, there were reports of Toronto agreeing to a contract extension with first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for $500 million over 14 years.
This is very relevant to the Cubs, because they are facing their own big-contract dilemma with outfielder Kyle Tucker, who will be a free agent after the season. Tucker is 28 and posted a .993 OPS last year, while Guerrero is 26 and delivered a .940 OPS.
Asked about the Guerrero extension before Monday's game, the low-key Tucker replied as expected.
“I don't know, it's what he wanted to do,” he said. “I'm sure he loves playing in Toronto and everything, so that's great for him. But everyone's a little different.
“Right now I'm here to play this year for the Cubs. So I'm excited to get out there and play again tonight and just kind of see where everything goes after that.”
Guerrero's deal, though not yet official, does come as a surprise, since he imposed a Feb. 18 deadline for getting an extension done. There were some suggestions Guerrero caved and could have moved closer to Juan Soto's $765 million for 15 years on the open market.
So is this a template for Tucker's next contract? It's pretty close, but with Tucker two years older than Soto or Guerrero, it feels like maybe 10 or 12 years is the max length. The average value of $35.7 million per season seems about right, which might put Tucker around $430 million over 12, or maybe $400 million for 10.
Whether the Cubs plan on paying that is another question. The feeling here is management and ownership wouldn't have gone through with the Tucker trade if they weren't prepared to be competitive with his next contract. At the same time, a new collective bargaining agreement, possibility of an MLB salary cap or an overall economic recession could create some pause.
The current Cubs payroll is about $40 million below where it was last season, which in theory is a perfect slot for Tucker's new deal.
Another question is how much competition will there be for Tucker? The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox have already been big spenders. Toronto isn't likely to add another giant deal. The Astros and Padres made preemptive trades to avoid having to re-sign their free agents.
It's possible teams like the Giants or Angels could make a pitch, or the New York teams decide they have more to spend. Boston outbid the Cubs for third baseman Alex Bregman over the winter, which suggests the Cubs are more likely to spend their money on Tucker.
It was symbolic that Tucker and Bregman — two former Astros — were named NL and AL players of the week, respectively, on Monday. Tucker hit .391 with 3 home runs, 8 RBI and 8 walks last week.
Tucker grew up in Tampa, Fla., but went 2-for-5 with an RBI in the cold. Minnesota native Michael Busch was the hitting star with a double and triple, while Ian Happ had 3 RBI. The Cubs did a nice job moving into scoring position with 5 stolen bases.
Steele, a Mississippi native, said he threw the medicine ball to stay warm between innings and over the years has grown to appreciate days like this that are tough on hitters.
“I'd say I got used to it in (Class A) South Bend, because I remember that was the first real time I was surrounded by snow, pitching in the snow, doing that different stuff,” Steele said while holding his two-year-old son. “It was a little bit of a culture shock at that moment, but I would say I'm definitely used to it now. If anything, I kind of look forward to it, because it's usually good conditions for me.”