The Cubs may have the best offense in baseball. How are they doing it?
As pitcher Ben Brown sat down to meet the media after the Cubs’ 6-2 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday afternoon, a reporter asked him what it was like to face arguably the best lineup in the National League. Brown smirked.
“I believe we have the best lineup in the National League,” he said. “Our guys have just been doing an incredible job. I truly do believe we have one of the best, top-to-bottom, thorough, great offenses in baseball.”
It’s been a little more than a month since the Cubs opened the season in Japan. They scored just four runs in those two games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, starting their season 0-2. Since then, the offense has proven to be a powerhouse. Despite that slow start and an early-season schedule loaded with some of the best teams in baseball, they’ve come out of the gates 14-9. Their potent lineup is a big reason.
The Cubs have scored 143 runs, averaging 6.2 per game, both tops in baseball. The offense isn’t doing it just one way either. They’re patient (fifth in walk rate), powerful (third in isolated power) and they hit for average (third in batting average). They don’t strike out much, they rarely chase and they attack pitches in the zone. This lineup is doing it all right now.
So how’s it happening? Here are three keys to why this offense is humming through 23 games.
It’s the superstar, silly
There are other reasons this is happening, of course, but no need to overthink it for point No. 1. Team president Jed Hoyer wanted to add a superstar bat to his lineup this winter and did so by trading for Kyle Tucker. Tucker has lived up to that billing.
He’s never going to be a media darling or deliver the splashy headline quote. But who cares when you’re delivering a team-leading 186 wRC+, thumping clutch home runs and proving to be one of the most feared bats in the National League?
“It’s a really good group that we have here,” Tucker said. “I think we have a really special thing here this year. Hopefully, we can keep these good wins and good play going.”
Who knows if Tucker will be in Chicago beyond 2025. But a month into his time with the team, the results have been nothing short of brilliant.
A step forward for Busch
The assumption was that Seiya Suzuki would be Robin to Tucker’s Batman. That has largely been the case as the Cubs’ designated hitter has been a force at the plate early on. But Michael Busch, building upon his strong 2024, has made the heart of the lineup look as dangerous as any in baseball. Right behind Tucker in the wRC+ leaderboards? It’s Busch, at 180.
“He’s a young hitter,” manager Craig Counsell said. “He had a really successful year last year. The goal is to put 500 plate appearances under your belt, learn from ’em, get a little better from ’em. Understand what you have to be better at. He went through the offseason and spring training, and you just shrink your hole just a little bit, get yourself to expand your good part or your zone. He’s done a good job of it.”
When Counsell talks about getting a little bit better, it appears that where Busch has improved is at the top of the zone. He’s swinging and missing less in the upper third and doing more damage with those pitches. At a minimum, he’s avoiding ending at-bats with those pitches and staying alive to see better offerings. It’s led to a hot start and the Cubs having a trio of thumpers batting 2-3-4.
No empty at-bats at the bottom
It’s not just the heart of the order doing damage. In the first three months of last season, the Cubs got a 74 wRC+ from the 7-8-9 hitters, 23rd in baseball. A hot second half from Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya led to the offense turning things around and making those overall numbers look much stronger.
This year, that part of the lineup is tops in baseball with a 135 wRC+. Even with the now-demoted Matt Shaw getting the vast majority of at-bats in the eight-hole, the Cubs’ bottom part of the lineup has dominated.
“We’re getting good production for sure, from Pete, from the catchers,” Counsell said. “No team has nine guys going off. You know what I mean? Over a 22-game span, we’ve got a lot of guys being very productive. You take your turn, and that’s how you’re a good offense. That’s what you want to continue.”
Crow-Armstrong looks like a potential star who can play elite defense, impact the game on the bases and hit. If he can come close to putting up his current 127 wRC+ over a full season, he’s likely to earn some MVP votes. But that’s only if Carson Kelly slows down. Despite playing in just 11 games, the Cubs’ part-time catcher is somehow tied with Fernando Tatis Jr, Jung Hoo Lee and Geraldo Perdomo for fourth in baseball with 1.4 WAR (FanGraphs).
Kelly’s performance has overshadowed Amaya, who is putting up a solid 105 wRC+ and emerging as a leader behind the plate.
Sure, Kelly is unlikely to keep this up. And others will slump. But like Counsell said, this is how you put up good offensive numbers. When some players struggle, others step up and carry the load. Dansby Swanson and Justin Turner are struggling. Swanson’s expected stats suggest he’s just fine (he has the 14th largest gap in baseball between his wOBA and xwOBA). As his two hits on Saturday showed, he may be ready to end his slump any time now.
Having a star like Tucker is huge for the group. The hope is his limited stretches of poor play will help keep the extreme down times to a minimum. But the depth and ability to have different players step up on different days is what may allow this group to be one of the best in all of baseball. There’s a lot of season left, but so far, the Cubs’ offense is proving to be quite potent with the ability to match any lineup in the game.
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