Gonzales: Trade Contreras? If the Cubs do, they should demand a big return
The long-awaited trades of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant prepared Cubs fans for a wave of prospects that have whet their appetite for a playoff run in the future.
And with the clock ticking on the future of two-time All-Star catcher Willson Contreras, is there a successful return in a trade that would satisfy loyal supporters who likely will have to wait two more years before the current fulcrum of young talent reaches the majors?
Yes, as long as those players are major league ready. Signing Marcus Stroman and claiming Wade Miley on waivers in November upgraded the rotation, and signing free-agent slugger Seiya Suzuki this month was a clever move. But it shouldn't stop.
There remains a need to acquire players who can contribute now and perhaps serve as mentors when the flock of prospects are ready for the majors. The roster remains dotted with replacements who contributed to a 20-36 record after July 31.
The National League Central is the weakest in baseball, and the Cardinals' recent rash of pitching injuries makes them vulnerable.
The expansion of the playoffs to three wild-card teams in each league provides the Cubs with at least an opportunity to feast on the rebuilding Pirates and reeling Reds before assessing their status entering July, as they did in the weeks leading up to their fire sale eight months ago.
Warning: Some of the Cubs' prospects may suffer injuries or performance setbacks, but the farm system possesses quality depth for the first time since 2015, when it was ranked first by Baseball America. Some of those prospects were dealt to help the Cubs win the World Series the following season, but that's the price of doing business.
Trading Rizzo, Baez and Bryant from a sub-. 500 team allowed the Cubs to restock their farm system to a respectable level. And the development of 2018 second-round pick Brennen Davis, the acquisition of outfielder Owen Caissie in the five-for-two trade involving Yu Darvish 15 months ago, and the international signing of Cristian Hernandez provide them with three high-ceiling talents.
The preference here is to sign Contreras to an extension, but the Cubs went 0-for-3 with Rizzo, Baez and Bryant before trading them prior to the July 31 deadline.
Without an agreement in sight, the Cubs should demand multiple players in a trade for Contreras.
Starting with San Diego first baseman Eric Hosmer? He's scheduled to earn $20 million in 2022 and $13 million in each of the next three seasons unless he exercises an opt-out clause before each of those seasons.
Hosmer, 32, is not a prototypical power-hitting first baseman. But his gap-to-gap hitting ability might be more productive at Wrigley Field than at spacious Petco Park, and against the National League Central and its dearth of left-handed starters. He'd also provide protection for second-half sensation Frank Schwindel and his tight back.
However, Hosmer's defensive metrics have declined, and he might be too pricey to be relegated to designated hitter duties.
At this point, it's too much of a risk unless the Padres include a high-ceiling prospect such as shortstop CJ Abrams, pitcher MacKenzie Gore or catcher Luis Campusano. With Fernando Tatis Jr. entrenched at shortstop, Abrams is destined for a position change but needs more minor league seasoning.
The Yankees need catching help, but a match might be difficult because both organizations possess depth at shortstop.
Meanwhile, Miley's neck strain puts his availability for the first week of the regular season in question. It also lessens the possibility of Kyle Hendricks, who is signed through 2023 (with a club option for 2024), being traded soon.
Coincidentally, Jason Heyward, Contreras and Hendricks — the three longest tenured Cubs players — aren't part of the team's bobblehead day promotions this season. Heyward is close to untouchable, due to his two years and $44 million left on his contract and full veto rights.
The Cubs hold the seventh pick in the 2022 draft, which gives them a chance to select a high-ceiling player. In the meantime, they can work on upgrading the major league roster if they reach the painful decision to trade Contreras.