Position decision could hurt DeRozan's All-NBA candidacy
At the all-star break, Billy Donovan might have been the leader for coach of the year and DeMar DeRozan seemed headed for a first-team All-NBA selection for the first time in his career.
Then came the slump, and the Bulls losing a grasp of most everything that made them successful earlier in the season.
Donovan is not a realistic candidate for coach of the year anymore. DeRozan figures to make one of the All-NBA teams, but that entire process is going to be interesting, for a few reasons. Basically, the NBA is going to have to figure out the best way to produce an all-league team while the game is shifting to a more positionless system.
DeRozan was voted an all-star starter because he was labeled a backcourt player on the ballot. In reality, he's started every game at small forward for the Bulls, unless you want to make the argument he's part of a three-guard lineup.
For the all-NBA teams, DeRozan will do better as a forward, because there's less competition there. The other major issue is if there's only one center on the team, then either Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic, likely the top two in the MVP race, will not make first team.
Longtime NBA analyst Marc Stein wrote about the all-NBA guidelines recently. Voters are allowed to put Embiid or Jokic at center or forward, but votes will be counted only for the position where the player gets the most votes. So if Jokic gets 80 votes at center and 50 at forward, only the 80 votes will be counted.
So it would take an awful lot of coordination to get both Embiid and Jokic on the first-team and frankly, that's not likely to happen with so many voters. It's fair to say this is a problem, but also fair to say back in the day, voters had to choose between Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell every year, so deal with it.
Will it hurt DeRozan's chances if his votes are split between guard and forward? It's certainly possible. Some have claimed Boston's Jayson Tatum getting votes split between guard and forward cost him a spot on the third team last year.
DeRozan's previous two appearances on All-NBA teams were as a guard. He made the second team in 2018 and third team in 2017.
Personally, I'd be fine with both Embiid and Jokic making the All-NBA first team, but it's not likely to happen. This vote will be interesting to watch because of the battle at center, competition among guards and whether voters will recognize LeBron James' monster stat year despite the lack of team success.
Here's a prediction that could make sense, sticking to the traditional format:
All-NBA first team: Ja Morant, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, James, Jokic.
Second team: Devin Booker, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Tatum, Embiid.
Third team: James Harden, Dejounte Murray, DeRozan, Pascal Siakam, Karl-Anthony Towns.
While we're at it, here are some predictions for the other major awards:
MVP: Stat-wise, Nikola Jokic is a little better. But Joel Embiid has Philadelphia at the top of the East despite Ben Simmons bailing out and a major midseason trade to bring in James Harden. Both are solid choices, but NBA voters tend to spread this award around (see Charles Barkley and Karl Malone during the Bulls' championship run), so Embiid might be the favorite.
Coach of the year: After several top candidates faded, it looks like Memphis' Taylor Jenkins, a G-League graduate, will get the win, although voters could reward the well-liked Monty Williams for a stellar two-year run with the Suns.
Rookie of the year: This is literally a dead heat between Detroit's Cade Cunningham, Cleveland's Evan Mobley and Toronto's Scottie Barnes, while Orlando's Franz Wagner and Oklahoma City's Josh Giddey could reasonably get first-place votes.
Cunningham is the top rookie scorer, Mobley leads in rebounds, while Barnes ranks in the top five in points, rebounds and assists. Toronto just passed Cleveland in the standings, and it's not Cunningham's fault he was drafted by the worst team. The pick here is Barnes, but this is obviously too close to call.
Sixth Man Award: Miami's Tyler Herro has this one locked up, averaging 20.9 points off the bench. Kevin Love, Jordan Clarkson and Kelly Oubre are runners-up.
Defensive player of the year: This award is always subjective and difficult to measure. One way to do it is look for the best defensive rating on the best defensive team. Using that strategy, three names stand out: Miami's Bam Adebayo, and Boston's Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Adebayo would be a good choice, but I think Phoenix' Mikal Bridges is the likely winner. His defensive rating is worse than teammate Chris Paul, but Bridges is building a reputation as a really good wing defender. Plus, the Suns figure to win at least one award with all their success.
Most Improved: There's been some talk of Memphis' Ja Morant winning this, but his floor was pretty darn high last year. The pick here is San Antonio's Dejounte Murray, Zach LaVine's former Seattle high school rival. He leads the league in steals and nearly doubled his assist average since last season. Cleveland's Darius Garland and Charlotte's Miles Bridges are my runners-up.
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