Mideast Sisyphus: The diplomatic hill Blinken, Burns must climb

Pity Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and CIA Director Bill Burns.

They have been plunged into the caldron that is the Middle East and now face the Sisyphean task of trying to bring some order out of the current chaos. Consider:

They are trying to broker a deal that would pause the fighting in Gaza for an extended period of time that would allow the release of the remaining surviving hostages, the simultaneous release of Palestinian prisoners and the provision of increased aid to the residents of Gaza.

That deal would, in theory, be a steppingstone to a longer-term deal that would end the fighting, allow a new, revamped Palestinian Authority to take over the governance of Gaza and, in addition, put the Abraham Accords process back on track. That process would lead, it is hoped, to formal relations between Israel and the Saudis.

The quid pro quo that would convince the Saudis to take that step would be a relaunching of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians that would seek the two-state solution that has eluded them despite the most strenuous diplomatic efforts.

What could go wrong?

Finding credible partners for peace on the Israeli and Palestinian sides means clearing out a lot of dead and rotted wood. This includes the leadership of Hamas in Gaza, as opposed to the group of Hamas leaders in the Gulf, who are currently split over the future of the conflict. It means removing the Palestinian Authority leadership -- 87-year-old Mahmoud Abbas and many around him -- who are corrupt, ineffective and illegitimate in the eyes of their own people.

The problem here is that many Palestinians have been radicalized, not only by the way that Israel has prosecuted the war in Gaza, but by the continued aggression of Israeli settlers in the West Bank that this Israeli government has done little or nothing to curb. In such an environment, can one expect Palestinians to choose “moderate” leadership?

And it requires the removal – by democratic means – of Benjamin Netanyahu as Israeli Prime Minister. There can never be a true effort at peace negotiations as long Netanyahu and his hard right cabinet hold the majority in the Knesset. His steadfast opposition to a Palestinian state has been demonstrated time and again over a generation. But Netanyahu will not go without a fight and the fight will most certainly be ugly.

Then there is Iran. Iran has no desire to see a rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia and the security partnership and arms package that America would provide to sweeten the bargain. Beyond that, it is not clear what Iran wants.

Many believe it does not want a wider war and a direct confrontation with America, and it will claim that it has little to no control over certain militant groups that it has supported, as it did in the wake of the killing of three U.S. service personnel in Jordan this past weekend. Few believe that.

However, the Biden administration had a functioning diplomatic channel with Iran that led to the release of Americans held by Iran and a tacit understanding that Iran would slow its nuclear program and not cross certain thresholds. Then came October 7.

Add to all this the politics of a presidential election year and the inevitable charges by Republicans that the Biden administration is weak and that it needs to hit Iran hard. Are they willing to live with the consequences of such actions and the potential cost in American blood and treasure?

This much is clear. America needs to be involved because multiple interests are at stake and the President needs to consult with Congressional leaders so that America might go forward united. Sisyphean indeed.

• Keith Peterson, of Lake Barrington, served 29 years as a press and cultural officer for the United States Information Agency and Department of State. He was chief editorial writer of the Daily Herald 1984-86.