Suburban races crucial to future legislative control

It has been said that the battle of Waterloo was won on the playing fields of Eton. In 2010 it is highly probable that control of the Illinois General Assembly for possibly the next decade will be won on the political fields of the Northwest suburbs. Why?

Though the general election is more than a year away and the Feb. 2 primary looms large in setting up legislative matchups, one fact will not change - no section of Illinois will have more competitive legislative races than Northwest suburban Cook County, southern and central Lake County and the eastern parts of Kane and McHenry counties.

If Illinois Republicans can regain their once-solid foothold in this region they could reverse the decade and a half "bluing" of Illinois politics that sees Democrats holding all the power in the General Assembly.

Three basic points must be stressed to understand the potential political dynamics of my thesis.

First, the recent free fall of Illinois GOP fortunes can be traced directly to the suburbs. Much has been written about the near elimination of Republican office holders and their vote strength in southern Cook County, but of equal importance is the party's electoral slide in the Northwest suburbs. This area was once bedrock Republican; today it is competitive with Democrats holding many state Senate and House seats.

Second, the so-called "O" elections (election years ending in zero) are the most crucial of the decade. The reapportionment and redistricting of legislative districts is decided by the General Assembly elected in "O" years. This fact explains why legislative leadership will go all out - both in money and manpower - to win in 2010.

Third, the Illinois GOP has unintentionally helped Democrats immensely with its internal skirmishes over its platform, the process of electing a state chairman and the overall philosophical direction of the party's future. In many ways Republicans remind me of both the George McGovern Democrats of the 1970s and the historically woeful Independent Voters of Illinois because, like them, these folks would rather lose, gripe and remain pure than win, govern and compromise. Many socially conservative Republicans have simply forgotten that the purpose of a political party is to elect candidates. Thus crucial to GOP prospects in the Northwest battleground will be whether their legislative primary winners are politicians whose overall views reflect their districts' demographic makeup.

Given the ongoing political madness in Illinois - much of it inspired by former Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich - one would assume if the GOP is ever going to mount a political comeback, 2010 would be the year and the Northwest suburbs would be the focal point of their counterattack.

This complicated political picture will be analyzed at a conference at 9 a.m. Monday, Nov. 16, at Roosevelt University's Schaumburg campus. The public is invited to attend the third annual Herb and Eileen Franks Seminar, hosted by the university and sponsored by the Daily Herald and the Schaumburg Business Association. Among the speakers will be high-powered political pundits and party leaders. Admission is free.

• Paul Green is director of the School of Policy Studies and Arthur Rubloff Professor of Policy Studies at Roosevelt University.