'Beat goes on' in White House race; bad news for state GOP
Paul Green is the director of the School of Policy Studies at Roosevelt University.
"Super-Duper-Tsunami" Tuesday has thankfully come and gone.
In the Republican race for the presidential nomination, Arizona Sen. John McCain was finally able to put some delegate distance between him and rivals Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Romney has since withdrawn from the race. However, in the Democratic contest the results were more like Sonny and Cher ("The Beat Goes On") than a definitive showdown between U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
What does it all mean? Two points.
First, this goofy, expensive and exhausting nomination process will continue in both parties. Sen. John McCain probably has the "political juice" to close out the game in the next few weeks. As for the Democrats -- it looks like this two-way slugfest could last until their late-August national convention.
My reasoning is relatively simple on the Democratic struggle. Political scientists have argued for decades that in presidential nomination contests "you do not beat your opponent(s) --- you bankrupt them." On this point it must be noted that perhaps the most stunning development coming out of Super Tuesday was Clinton's spokesman's statement that her remaining campaign funds are precariously low. It was announced that she has already lent her campaign $5 million and may have to lend it more. However, given her big wins in California and New York on Tuesday this war chest shortfall may be temporary. As long as the two senators can raise the dough this battle will continue.
An added factor keying my prediction of an ongoing Clinton/Obama duel is the Democratic Party's rule of "proportionality," meaning as long as you garner 15 percent of the primary vote, you will win delegates. It is nearly impossible in a two-way Democratic presidential primary fight between well-financed candidates for either to deliver a single state knockout blow to the other.
Locally the top story was the victory of Anita Alvarez in the Democratic Cook County State's Attorney race. She defeated several well-financed opponents (all men) by running strong in several unexpected areas. Her totals in the North, and more interestingly, Northwest suburbs were amazing. Why? My guess is that obviously gender and her excellent campaign-ending television ads played a big part in her victory. I also believe Obama and to a lesser degree Clinton brought out suburban voters who were new to politics or at least to a Democratic primary race and these folks broke heavily for Alvarez.
Lastly, one has to comment on the continuing decline of the Illinois GOP. For many years I have argued that unless Illinois Republicans re-establish their suburban base they will not be competitive in statewide contests or compete for control of either chamber of the Illinois General Assembly. It was not that long ago (1995) that the GOP controlled all six state constitutional offices as well as the Speaker of the Illinois House. Today they control nothing statewide and despite the Democrats 2007 Springfield-State Government Follies, the GOP outlook remains bleak.
On Tuesday some once bedrock Republican collar counties saw a majority of primary voters take a Democrat ballot. And despite explanations that this was due to the Obama/Clinton factor -- this formerly unthinkable scenario should be very worrisome to Illinois Republicans. When Illinois was a highly competitive state, suburban Cook County and the five collar counties produced GOP vote margins to balance out Democratic margins in Chicago. Today suburban Cook adds to the Democratic victory margins and the collars are becoming more politically competitive. Nothing on Tuesday suggests this trend is reversing or even stopping. Here again, "The Beat Goes On."