What Chicago's new mayor means for the suburbs

Brandon Johnson was sworn in as the 57th mayor of Chicago last month, ushering in a new era of Chicago politics and priorities.

The former Cook County Board member and Chicago Teachers Union organizer has laid out a host of priorities. But some of his initiatives will have a greater impact on the Chicago suburbs - and their businesses - than others.

Here's what to watch as Johnson takes charge:

1. Arlington Heights Bears

Before she left, former Mayor Lori Lightfoot said the city should "continue making the business case as to why the Bears should remain in Chicago."

If Johnson ignores that advice, the suburbs could see many benefits from the football team finding a new home - increased property values, business opportunities and leisure and hospitality revenue.

Yet, Soldier Field also poses a case study for taxpayers: watch out for tax hikes. Chicagoans are still on the hook for $640 million for stadium renovations from 2002. The Bears have said they're not seeking taxpayer funds for the "structure," yet they'd still want property tax assistance with the "infrastructure." Arlington Heights residents already pay some of the highest property taxes in the nation - at 2.2% of their homes' values each year, according to the Tax Foundation - and should make their voices heard that tax exemptions should be completely off the table.

2. Tax increases

Johnson campaigned on a massive spending plan to finance Chicago services such as affordable housing, public schools and youth programs. To fund this spending, he explicitly said he would tax "the suburbs." His proposal includes:

• Taxing financial transactions at a rate of $1 or $2 for every "securities trading contract."

• Raising the real estate transfer tax on high-end home sales, commercial, apartment and other properties worth more than $1 million.

• Taxing airlines to "pay for polluting the air."

• Reinstating the $4 per month, per employee "head tax" on "large companies" that perform at least half their work in Chicago.

• Enacting new "user fees on high-end commercial districts frequented by the wealthy, suburbanites, tourists and business travelers."

A high-profile leader who was elected on a platform of so many tax hikes may inspire similar proposals in other home rule cities: there are 221 in Illinois, many of the suburbs.

So far, Gov. J.B. Pritzker has said the state will not approve some proposals such as the financial transactions tax because they're unfriendly to businesses. That's a good thing because with the city's already high tax burden, more tax hikes could cost jobs, drive out residents and deter visitors.

And that leads us to ...

3. Businesses leaving

After several large businesses flocked from the suburbs to the city during the 2010s, could the trend reverse? Or, could businesses pack up and leave Illinois altogether?

In the past year, five major U.S. companies - including Boeing, Citadel and Tyson Foods - have announced they are moving out of Chicago. Since Johnson took over, two more have eyed the exits, too.

First, rumors circulated about Guggenheim Partners following Citadel to Miami. Then, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange - founded in Chicago in 1898 - made headlines when it revealed any "ill-conceived" policies could let it break its lease.

At stake: Terry Duffy, executive chairman and president of CME Group, testified before the Illinois General Assembly in 2016 that CME Group employed 1,800 Illinoisans directly and supported 135,000 more Illinois jobs.

Every time a business leaves Chicago, it takes with it jobs, economic activity and talent. It also creates a trickle-down effect of lost revenue for the city and for the surrounding suburbs where staff often make their homes. This leaves a heavier burden for the remaining residents and businesses to carry.

U.S. Census Bureau data show population loss affected more than 85% of Illinois cities in 2022, with Chicago dropping by 32,990 people. Meanwhile, Chicago is facing a budget shortfall in 2024, 2025 and 2026.

No one wants to hear Chicago's reputation is as a declining metropolis. If Johnson can prioritize giving business leaders solid reasons to feel comfortable and confident in the city's direction, the perks will spread far outside city limits.

• Matt Paprocki is president and CEO of the Illinois Policy Institute.