Illinois' congressional loss reflects long trend
This week's announcement that Illinois would lose a congressional seat is the continuation of a trend in the state's population since the post-World War II era. Although Illinois is the sixth-largest state in terms of population, it used to rank even higher.
Illinois was one of three states to lose population between the 2010 and 2020 census, joining West Virginia and Mississippi, widely considered two of the poorest states in the country. The population dip in Illinois was 7,893 in that span.
It was the first time that the Land of Lincoln had dropped in residency from one census to another since statehood in 1818.
While Illinois had increased in population in every census until 2020, the rate of growth was smaller than some other states, particularly in the South and West. Illinois registered a population of just over 11.1 million in the 1970 census, a number that grew to more than 12.8 million in 2010.
By comparison, the population of California and North Carolina nearly doubled from 1970 to 2010, while Florida's nearly tripled. Both Georgia and Texas had more than twice the population in 2010 from 40 years earlier.
As a result, Illinois has seen a constant decline in congressional seats since 1940, when the state had 27. The state is now projected to have 17 seats.
From 1860 to 1960, Illinois ranked no lower than fourth in the nation in population, rising as high as third in each census from 1890 to 1940. Neighboring states were also among national population leaders, as Missouri was fourth in 1880 and was in the top 10 in each census from 1860 to 1940.
Indiana was in the top 10 each time from 1850 to 1910, while Iowa ranked 10th in 1880, 1890, and 1900.
Like the states, many Midwestern cities have experienced severe population declines since the mid-20th century.
In 1900, St. Louis trailed only New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia in population with 575,238 residents, giving rise to the nickname of "The Fourth City." St. Louis was one of the 10-largest cities in the U.S. in every census between 1850-1960.
Today, St. Louis is the 21st-largest metropolitan area in the United States, fueled by the growth of the suburbs.
The city of St. Louis itself ranked only 62nd in the nation in population in 2017 with 308,626 residents, down from 856,796 in 1950.
Similarly, both Pittsburgh and Cleveland have less than half the population as in 1950, while Detroit is about a third of its size in that census. Chicago is down nearly 25 percent from 1950.
Not all Midwestern cities are dropping. Indianapolis doubled its population from 1950, registering 863,002 residents in 2017.
But the greatest jumps are in the South and West.
The population of Las Vegas spiked from 24,624 in 1950 to nearly 641,676 in 2017, while Phoenix's went from 106,818 to more than 1.6 million.
The populations of Dallas and Fort Worth have each tripled, while San Antonio's and Houston's both rose over fourfold, and Austin's jumped from 132,459 in 1950 to 950,715 in 2020.
In San Jose, the population skyrocketed from 95,280 in 1950 to just over 1 million in 2017.
The Southern and Western shifts are reflected in the U.S. Center of Population, which has continually moved west. From 1950-1970, the center was located in Illinois, gradually moving from north of Olney to northwest of Centralia to southeast of Mascoutah. The 2010 center was located in Texas County in southern Missouri.
• Tom Emery may be reached at 217-710-8392 or ilcivilwar@yahoo.co