Study: Electrifying 30% of heavy-duty vehicles could save hundreds of lives, billions of dollars
If the region surrounding Chicago took 30% of its heavy-duty vehicles and made them electric, 610 lives and $5.8 billion would be saved each year, according to a new study out of Northwestern University.
Published in the journal Nature Sustainability last week, the study zeros in on North America's largest freight hub: the lower Great Lakes region, which includes Chicago, Milwaukee and Grand Rapids, Michigan.
The heavy-duty vehicles in question are a class that includes municipal transit buses, school buses, waste hauling trucks, semi-trucks and motor homes.
Though these vehicles make up just 6% of the wheels on the ground, they disproportionately contribute to the emissions and creation of air pollution and greenhouse gasses, said Sarra Camilleri, the postdoctoral scholar who led the study.
“In fact, the heavy-duty vehicle sector is the largest contributor to on-road nitrogen oxides and second largest source of on-road carbon dioxide emissions,” Camilleri said in a university news release. “Targeting this small portion of vehicles could have outsized implications for emission reductions.”
The clean-truck rule
The study was released as climate and clean air advocates are asking Gov. J.B. Pritzker to adopt a new emissions standard that would require manufacturers to increase sales of electric and other zero-emission models within the state over time — potentially realizing the results of Northwestern's report.
Created by California, the Advanced Clean Truck rule would begin ramping up in 2024 and by 2035 would require 40% of new semi-truck sales, 55% of new pickup truck and van sales, and 75% of new straight truck sales to be zero-emission or near-zero-emission.
The rule would apply only to manufacturers, not dealerships or consumers, and it would not prohibit the sale or ownership of new or used gasoline-powered trucks.
However, the policy's implementation is complicated by the chicken-and-egg conundrum presented by the lack of charging infrastructure in the state, said Matt Hart, the executive director of the Illinois Trucking Association.
Electric trucks are also pricey, Hart said, and an increase of the cost of the supply chain could lead to higher prices for consumers as well as shipment delays. He added that the rule would also put Illinois at a competitive disadvantage with surrounding states.
“In short, if Illinois adopts the Advance Clean Truck rule, Illinois-based trucking companies will move to Indiana and to Wisconsin,” he said.
In July, nearly 100 organizations sent a letter to the governor urging him to take action to adopt the rule, taking the position that, without the regulation, Illinois risks an outcome where fewer mid- to heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles are sold in the state.
The groups included The Nature Conservancy in Illinois, Environmental Defenders of McHenry County, Go Green Illinois, Environmental Law & Policy Center and the Shedd Aquarium.
“The governor's done a lot to try and get electric vehicle manufacturing developed here, but the odd thing is, is that those vehicles then go elsewhere. They go to places like New York or New Jersey, because that's where the manufacturers are being told they have to sell electric vehicles,” said Brian Urbaszewski, the director of environmental health programs at the Respiratory Health Association. “They wind up providing cleaner air in those places, and that means that we're being left behind. They're not providing the benefits here.”
So far, six other states have adopted California's rule: Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington.
“That's where this study comes in, because it shows that not only is there a benefit to getting electric vehicles on the road ASAP generally, but the pollution from these vehicles is hurting the poorest, most vulnerable communities,” Urbaszewski added.
Where EVs can help most
The Northwestern study found the health benefits of shifting to electric would largely be experienced by predominantly Black and Hispanic populations.
That's because air pollution from heavy-duty vehicles is higher in urban settings and areas close to interstate highways, and most people living within 300 feet of major road networks in the United States are people of color, according to the university's release.
“Many of the largest benefits we see occur in disinvested communities,” Daniel Horton, the study's senior author, said. “Systemic disadvantages and barriers within these communities can increase residents' susceptibility to poor air quality. Improvements in air quality in these areas can therefore have outsized positive effects.”
Through the use of an air quality model that combined emissions data with simulated meteorology, the researchers were able to look at where pollutants form and how they spread.
By comparing current pollution levels with a simulation that removed 30% of tailpipe, refueling and idling emissions from heavy-duty vehicles, the researchers saw promising results: Each year, net carbon dioxide emissions would decrease by 2.76 million tons, premature deaths due to nitrogen dioxide concentrations would drop by 590, and premature deaths from particulate matter would be cut by 70.
While gas-powered vehicles are a concern in part because the carbon dioxide they produce warms the planet, they're also harmful to human health through the production of ground-level ozone air pollution — more commonly known as smog.
Smog is made up of particulate matter, ground-level ozone and various chemicals including nitrogen oxides.
“Motor vehicles are a leading source of air pollutants that affect human health,” according to the U.S. Department of Transportation. “Vehicle emissions contribute to the formation of ground level ozone (smog), which can trigger health problems such as aggravated asthma, reduced lung capacity and increased susceptibility to respiratory illnesses, including pneumonia and bronchitis.”
Amid the positives of the study, the researchers also found that premature deaths from ozone would increase by about 50 deaths a year.
“The health benefits from reductions in nitrogen dioxide are still so high — irrespective of the increase in ozone — that the overall benefits are substantial,” Camilleri said. “The chemistry that controls ozone pollution is complicated, and additional measures to regulate volatile organic compounds may be needed.”
The study further posits that by avoiding annual health costs related to nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter reductions, $5.7 billion and $600 million would be saved each year, respectively.
While the increase in ozone levels would cause an additional cost of $500 million annually, the avoided carbon dioxide-related damages would save $456 million.
“This result highlights the higher financial savings from health co-benefits, which are often overlooked in climate mitigation policies,” according to the university news release.
The researchers also took into account shifts in emissions due to power plants usage.
The simulation included increases in emissions due to the increase in electricity demand needed to charge the vehicles' batteries, and the researchers further noted that even more lives and dollars would be saved if the power grid shifted to incorporate more emissions-free sources like wind and solar.
“Electric heavy-duty vehicle adoption not only reduces the greenhouse gas emissions that drive human-caused climate change, it also saves lives and helps tackle historical inequities in pollutant exposure,” Horton said in the news release. “While electric-vehicle adoption won't solve all of our collective climate, air quality and environmental justice problems, it does offer a number of benefits relative to our current fossil-fuel intensive transportation system.”
• Jenny Whidden is a climate change and environment writer working with the Daily Herald through a partnership with Report For America supported by The Nature Conservancy. To help support her work with a tax-deductible donation, see dailyherald.com/rfa.
Vehicles: Pollution largely affects Black, Hispanic communities most, study shows