Arkush: A win today would go a long way for the Bears
Today's meeting with the San Francisco 49ers is the new biggest game of the Mat Nagy/Ryan Pace era with the Chicago Bears.
Respect for the team among analysts and the public is at an all-time low off the latest embarrassment in Tampa.
However a win here with some improvement on offense, and an upset in Pittsburgh a week from Monday would send the Bears to their bye week as one of the favorites to claim the NFC's second or third wild card spot.
These 49ers don't vaguely resemble the young team that was just 11 minutes away from a Lombardi Trophy only 21 months ago.
The Bears are 4-point underdogs and the over/under is 39½.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH
49ers, Bears 3rd Down Offenses and Defenses
The 49ers are converting 31.4% of their 3rd downs on offense, 30th in the league while the Bears are successful 31.25% of the time, 32nd.
The 49rs defense is 8th on 3rd down getting stops 34.7% of the time while the Bears are 18th at a 40.7% clip.
Both teams will try to win with long drives wearing the other defense down while keeping the opposing offense on the sideline and hopefully out of rhythm.
The better 3rd down team will win.
Coaching moves to watch:
How will Bill Lazor and John DeFilippo protect Justin Fields and get the ball out of his hands quicker?
Yes, the Bears have had obvious offensive line woes and changes.
But as wildly successful as Fields was at Ohio St., - W 20 - L 2, 5,373 Yd.'s, 63 TD's, 9 interceptions, 260 - 1,133 yards rushing - in those 22 games he was sacked 49 times.
Study those 2019 and 2020 seasons and you find the question coming up constantly if he was holding the ball too long behind one of the best lines in the Big 10?
The problem can be fixed but is Bears coaches' focus in the right place?
Players to watch
49ers RB Elijah Mitchell, WR Deebo Samuel, ILB Fred Warner, Nick Bosa
Mitchell was drafted this year with the 194th pick out of Louisiana 40-to-45 minutes before the Bears used the 217th pick on Khalil Herbert, and he already has 2, 100-yard games including 18-107, 1 TD last week vs. Colts.
Samuel, 38 - 648, 17.1, 4 TD's has accounted for 32% of Niners receptions and 44% of passing yards.
Warner is a 1st team All Pro inside 'backer and Bosa the top pass rusher with 5 sacks.
The x-factors
49ers: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, OLT Trent Williams DE Dee Ford, S Jaquiski Tartt
Bears: Robert Quinn and Akiem Hicks
Garoppolo has struggled both with injuries, and on the field ever since that Super Bowl got away in the fourth quarter.
Williams missed practice most of the week with ankle and elbow issues and if he can't go is a huge loss.
Ford and Tartt are guys Kyle Shanahan hopes will be playmakers but both were sidelined all week with concussion and knee issues respectively.
With Khalil Mack out, Quinn and Hicks need to shine.
Players who could surprise
49ers: RB Trey Sermon, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Mohamed Sanu Sr.
Bears: WR Marquise Goodwin, ER Trevis Gipson
Sermon was Fields backfield mate at Ohio St. last year and did have a big game against Seattle when Mitchell was hurt.
With George Kittle on injured reserve, Garoppolo is desperate for a second choice after Samuel, but Aiyuk and Sanu have disappointed to date.
Goodwin's had one solid year in the league and it was a great season, with the 49ers. Gipson will get reps and has shown flashes.
Key stats
49ers: 12th Rushing, 20th Run 'D'
Bears: 5th Rushing, 23rd Run 'D'
The final word
Bears 23 - 49ers 16
That the Bears at 3-4 with wins over the top two teams in AFC are underdogs at home to a 2-4 club on a four-game losing streak tells you just how desperate and absurd this situation is.
The 49ers two wins were one score affairs over 0-7 Detroit and 2-5 Philadelphia.
The Bears have been the better team this season, are at home, and have more than enough character and veteran leadership to get this done. That's why if they don't, the season is probably over.
@Hub_Arkush